Popping the Twitter Reach bubble - 10% Reach and 1-3% CTR

Reach
I have been doing a little analysis and I have come to the conclusion that a realistic reach figure for a tweet on Twitter would be around 10-12% (6% of followers using web, 4-6% using Apps) of the individual’s followers. This is making the assumption that the majority of the individual’s followers are in the same timezone and they are not just following anyone (aka using a script).
Twitter Analyzer allows you to track how many of your followers are online at once
Click Through Rate
I have also used a little analysis from Bit.ly to work out that the click through rate of this content would be around 1%-4%. Once again making the assumption about the quality of networks.


Bit.ly allows you to see how many people click on your URLs (this is of 1825 followers I have)

I totally understand why iSpyLevis put out a reach number of 300,000 to make it comparable to other media but it is probably closer to 3,000 than 300,000.

Knowing this is great for planning but who is going to take back a reduced number when traditional media agencies are still talking inflated reach into the 100,000s?